One Year of the Arab Spring: Global and Regional Implications - INSS
What is happening in Syria entails risks and opportunities for Israel. If a future Syria removes itself from the radical axis, that will spell a very positive change for Israel. For many years, the Israeli defense establishment recommended reaching an agreement with Syria, even at a steep territorial cost, in order to drive a wedge between Syria and Iran and end Syria’s support for Hizbullah and Hamas. Now, if the regime falls, this positive process could occur without Israel’s involvement and without the need to make difficult territorial concessions Finally, Lebanon has also been suffering economically from the Syrian crisis and the sanctions imposed on the Assad regime, as roughly one-third of Lebanon’s foreign trade is conducted either with Syria or through Syria. In other words, contrary to the common perception of Lebanese“immunity” to the ongoing regional change, the Arab spring has been very much felt within Lebanon, mostly because of the historically tight economic,political, and geostrategic relations with Syria. And Lebanon’s political future will continue to be strongly affected by developments within Syria. In the short term, the most likely scenario with respect to Syria is a continuation of the internal violence. In the absence of forceful internationalintervention, neither Assad’s coercive apparatus nor an increasingly popular but still fragmented opposition seems capable of delivering a decisive blow to the other side. From a Lebanese perspective, this “quagmire” scenario means that the country should expect to continue suffering in terms of its own security, economy, and internal cohesion.In the longer term, the demise of the Assad government in Syria would have an even more profound effect on Lebanon. The departure of Assad and his entourage could lead to a real realignment of political forces within Lebanon, giving new power and credibility to those who led the “Cedar Revolution.” By the same token, Hizbullah, deprived of its ally in Damascus, could well lose political capital, power, and popularity. Still, Hizbullah would probably be able to withstand this political crisis thanks to its superior military apparatus, its strategic partnership with Iran, and its ability to reinterpret itself and adapt to changing circumstances. The potential ramifications for Lebanon of 
regime change in Syria should not be underestimated. The fall of Assad could truly be the key to transforming Lebanese politics and fulfilling the promises of the “Cedar Revolution.”
[ed note:israhell and cedar revolutions advocates...  "Israel helps us. Israel is like our mother." Years before its role in the so-called " Cedar Revolution" Act One of the CIA's "Arab Spring" - Color Revolutions and Geopolitics