Israel in the Wake of the Arab Spring :Seizing Opportunities

Israel in the Wake of the Arab Spring :Seizing Opportunities, Overcoming Challenges http://2013.presidentconf.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Arab-Spring-Final.pdf
2.Benefitting from the Asad Regime’s Collapse The civil war in Syria has been
going on for more than two years and an end is still not in sight. Though inevitable, the process of Bashar al-Asad‟s regime downfall will be longer than initially predicted. And it will bring chaos and instability, with ripple effects in the neighborhood, in countries as Jordan and Lebanon Apart from lingering instability, the main Israeli concern is the potential of alQa‟idatype groups to exploit the regime‟s weakness in order to carry out terrorist activities in the Golan area.Otherwise, however, the Syrian enigma offers some opportunities to Israel: first, in the long run, is the likely rise to power of a Sunni legitimate regime that might be more amenable to peaceful relations to Israel. Second, in the more immediate future, it signals the weakening of the anti-Israeli axis, led by Iran and Syria. Iran‟s ability to project power on Israel‟s immediate environment has undoubtedly declined; the weakening of Iran and Syria is also taking atoll on the non-state players in the “resistance” camp, Hamas and Hizballah. Moreover, the fact that the latter continue supporting Asad‟s brutal atrocities further stigmatizes the Shi‟i organization in the Sunni world.The Syrian crisis offers Israel two additional opportunities, whichhave beenpartially exploited:
First, Jordan‟s apprehension of the possible spillover effect withinits borders–in terms of terrorism, instability and refugees–creates a potential for warmer Israeli-Jordanian relations.Indeed, there are indications that Prime Minister Netanyahu and King „Abdallah II are tacitly coordinating their policy vis-à-vis the Syrian front7

3.Benefitting fromthe Growing Sunni-Shi’i Rift:The rise of Islamic Sunni-Arab forces in the

Arab world changed the balance of power between the Sunna and Shi‟a. The growing Iranian role in the Middle East, which in recent years was supported by Syria and Hizballah, and largelyencouraged by the changing role of the Shi‟is in Iraq, received a blow by the Arab Spring. Consequently, a new Sunni coalition seemed to be emerging in the region, withTurkey and Egypt being central players in its formation, backed by the moderate monarchies of Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Morocco[[[[[this Sunni axis and Israel have several common interests in theregion:]]]]][[[[[[ first, diminishing theIraniannuclearchallenge, which threatens the security, status and economic interests]]]]]][[[[[oftheSunni Muslim countries;]]]]][[[[[[second, containing the looming threats from Syria, and possibly even assisting in deposing the Bashar regime]]]];[[[[and third, ending the stalemate on the Palestinian front, which might deteriorate into a third Intifada]]]]]