[[[[[[If Assad defeats his
opponents with the help of Hezbollah and Iran, his survival is bound to
be perceived as a victory for the regional “axis of resistance” to
Israel. And a permanent Iranian presence in Syria would make a war
between Israel and Iran practically unavoidable. Palestine would then be
relegated to an obscure corner of the international agenda]]]]].Complicating
matters further, America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have limited
its regional clout. The US now faces an unpredictable Middle East that
is writing its own history as well – or as badly – as it can.Syria’s
internal conflict has now become a Sunni-Shia sectarian war that is
spreading across the region. The Sunni clerics who have just declared a
jihad against “the Iranian regime, Hezbollah, and its sectarian allies”
are the voice of millions across the Muslim world.Furthermore,
waves of Syrian refugees are threatening the sustainability of the
Jordanian monarchy, already roiled by profound internal cleavages.
Hezbollah has drawn Lebanon into the Syrian conflict, setting up a
showdown between Shia and Sunni at home.A
similar scenario is already unfolding in Iraq. Turkey, a responsible
regional power, has so far resisted being drawn into the Syrian
quagmire, but its effects can be seen in the rising tensions between the
country’s Sunni majority and the Shia Alevi sect.Inertia
is not an adequate response in an era of revolutionary change.
Unfortunately, Israel is missing a coherent regional strategy.
Netanyahu, always on the defensive, does not view Middle East turmoil as
a trigger for a proactive strategy that would use a solution to the
Palestinian problem as leverage for broader positive change in the
region.America,
burdened by the cost of its Middle East troubles, eager to refocus on
Asia, and no longer in need of Arab oil, can allow itself to leave the
region to its destiny. Israel is part of the region and has a strong
interest in helping to shape its future.Israel
has traditionally strived to forge alliances with the region’s
minorities – Kurds, Persians, Maronites, and others. [[[[[Now is the time for
a major shift to an alliance with the region’s overwhelming Sunni
majority.Israel
should follow Obama, whose recent decision to arm the Syrian rebels,
though belated and still ill-defined, is a choice for the Sunni
alliance. Israel should play an active role in the fall of Assad as a
way to undermine the region’s “Shia crescent” and isolate its leader,
Iran. Assad’s defeat would break the “axis of resistance,” choke off
Hezbollah’s arms supplies, and drive a permanent wedge between Turkey
and Iran]]]]]].A
solution to the Palestinian problem would serve such a strategy. It
would strengthen Israel’s relations with Egypt, help to stabilize Jordan
(a vital and friendly buffer state), and remove a major source of
tension with Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Islamist
government. Most important, it would undermine Iran’s efforts to make
inroads into the Arab world under the pretext of defending Palestine and
Holy Jerusalem.
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