POMED Notes: “Turkey’s Leadership Role in an Uncertain Middle East”
On Wednesday, the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies, in collaboration with the Institute of Turkish Studies, held a conference on Turkey, called “Regional and Domestic Challenges for an Ascendant Turkey.” The third panel, entitled “Turkey’s Leadership Role in an Uncertain Middle East,” featured Joost Hiltermann, the deputy program director at International Crisis Group, Yigal Shleifer, a freelance journalist, and Robin Wright, a USIP senior fellow and a scholar at the Wilson Center. Abderrahim Foukara, the Al Jazeera Washington bureau chief, moderated.
Joost Hiltermann began the discussion focusing on Turkey’s relationship with Iraq. During and after the United States’ invasion of Iraq, Turkey was particularly fearful of the post-war power vacuum. When the U.S. finally conducted the “surge,” Turkey was relieved because the surge succeeded in empowering Sunnis which made Turkey much more comfortable with building its relationship with the Iraqi government. At the time, Turkey had three primary foreign policy goals: to use Iraq as a buffer zone protecting it from Iran, to prevent the growth of any substantial Kurdish nationalist movement, and to guarantee access to resources. Turkey pressed specifically in support of Iraqi oil sharing laws that would further incorporate the Kurds in Iraq. This ensured Turkish access to energy resources, empowered the Iraqi government (and weakened Iranian influence), and undermined Kurdish nationalism. Turkey even hoped that the Kurdish government in Iraq would ultimately help it in its fight against the PKK. Then, according to Hiltermann, Turkey’s relationship with Iraq “took a nosedive.” In 2009, fearful of growing Iranian influence in the Maliki government, Turkey supported the Sunni Iraqiyya bloc in Iraq’s elections. Unfortunately, Maliki managed to retain hold of power, meaning Turkey now faces an unfriendly government. Hiltermann concluded pointing out that there’s now a general feeling in the Middle East that after Turkey “takes out Syria,” it will set its sights on Iraq and Maliki.
Yigal Schleifer spoke about the Turkish-Israeli relationship since the Mavi Marmara incident. Turkey currently demands an apology for the incident and the lifting of the siege of Gaza before it’s willing to normalize relations, a stipulation Israel could obviously never accept. So, Schleifer argued, it seemsTurkey had been looking for an “amicable divorce” from Israel for some time. Signs for the future are discouraging, Schleifer added. Mutual distrust between the two countries is on the rise. The relationship has become a huge domestic issue in fact, with anti-Israeli sentiment increasing in Turkey and distrust of the Turkish government on the rise in Israel. Trade relations however, are at their highest level ever, yet that doesn’t mean relations could normalize soon. In fact, both countries are trying to punish each other on an international level. Israel has reached out to Azerbaijan, Romania, and Cyprus. For now, Schleifer said, the lack of top-level communication between Turkey and Israel is dangerous – the United States should push the two to communicate and begin cooperating.
Robin Wright discussed Turkey’s relations with Syria and Iran but first pointed out that “the AKP government in Turkey has become one of the world’s biggest players.” In fact, Turkey is expected to have the 15th largest economy in the world by the end of next year. Iran has been important to Turkey in the last decade or so as a source of oil, but also as an arena for displaying diplomatic strength and regional influence. Syria was important to Turkey as a new market to expand into (as Turkey’s economy grew) and also as another opportunity for flexing diplomatic muscles vis-à-vis facilitating Syrian-Israeli relations. Turkish-Syrian relations were strong before the Arab Spring. But now Turkey is doing more than any other country to support the Syrian uprising, functioning as a base of operations for rebel groups. It will take a change of leadership in Damascus before a normalization of Turkish-Syrian relations, Wright asserted. Historically, Turkey and Iran had strong trade relations, primarily due to Turkey’s need for oil and natural gas. In fact, one third of Turkey’s oil comes from Iran. Now, however, after a breakdown in negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, Turkey has cut back significantly on its trade with Iran and has begun looking for alternative sources of oil.
In the question and answer session, moderator Abderrahim Foukara asked the panel if Arab Spring countries seemed more likely to follow a “Turkey model” or “Iran model.” Robin Wrightreplied “definitely the Turkish model” because no other country in the region has come to close to having the level of influence that Turkey has had.
"The Middle East Institute could not survive or achieve its mission without the generous support of its Corporate Members and additional donations coming from concerned individuals and foundations." [2]
Corporate Members PRESIDENT'S CIRCLE Chevron Corporation Coca-Cola Company Conoco
Phillips ExxonMobil Raytheon Saudi Aramco Shell
DIRECTOR'S CIRCLE American Science and Engineering, Inc. BAE Systems Land & Armaments
Bank of Sharjah Boeing BP Contrack International, Inc. Dar Al-Handasah Dutco Group DynCorp International General Dynamics Corporation Hunt Oil Company Investcorp Japan Bank for International Cooperation Kuwait Petroleum Corporation USA, Inc Lockheed Martin Corporation National Bank of Dubai Occidental Petroleum Corporation The Sandi Group Valmont Industries
STANDARD CORPORATE Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. Arab Banking Corporation (BSC)
GE Asset Management General Motors Corporation Halliburton Marathon Oil Company
Northrop Grumman The Olayan Group Rawabi Holding Company Riyad Bank
[ED NOTES: Joost Hiltermann, the deputy program director at International Crisis Group, ..WHO FUNDS THEM?
Foundation and private sector donors includeThe Atlantic Philanthropies Carnegie Corporation of New York Ford Foundation e.g. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation Flora Hewlett FoundationOpen Society Institute Sarlo Foundation of the Jewish Community Endowment Fund
United States Institute of Peace Fundacão Oriente."
President’s Council in 2008
This exclusive Council welcomes donors contributing US$100,000 or more annually:
- Khalid Alireza, BHP Billiton, Canaccord Adams Limited, Equinox Partners, Alan Griffiths, Frank Holmes, Iara Lee & George Gund III Foundation, Frederick Iseman, George Landegger, Ford Nicholson, Royal Bank of Scotland, Ian Telfer, Guy Ullens de Schooten,StatoilHydro ASA, Neil Woodyer [4]
Executive Committee Accessed April 2009: [5]
- Morton Abramowitz - Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and Ambassador to Turkey George Soros - Chairman, Open Society Institute
Kenneth Adelman, Former U.S. Ambassador and Director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency
Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former U.S. National Security Advisor to the President
Wesley Clark, Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander
Stanley Fischer,Vice-Chairman, Citigroup Inc. and former First Deputy Managing Director of International Monetary Fund- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- [ED NOTES: Yigal Shleifer, a freelance journalist ..WHO IS HE?HES A WRITTER AT EURASIANET SITE...A WINE ENTHUSIAST AND YES A ''SOROS AGENT'' http://www.eurasianet.org/taxonomy/term/2322
Affiliated partner of the International Relations and Security Network.
Partners- ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- [ED NOTES; Robin Wright, a USIP senior fellow ..WHO IS USIP?
- In 1981, a congressionally chartered commission recommended the creation of a national peace academy. The United States Institute of Peace was signed into law in 1984 by President Ronald Reagan.
…
Established in 1984, the Institute meets its congressional mandate through an array of programs, including grants, fellowships, conferences and workshops, library services, publications, and other educational activities. The Institute's Board of Directors is appointed by the President of the United States and confirmed by the Senate.[1] - Peter Ackerman is on "the U.S. Advisory Council of the United States Institute of Peace." [4]
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- [ED NOTES: Institute of Turkish Studies ...WHO ARE THEY? AN EXTENSION OF TURKISH GOV...
- The Institute of Turkish Studies was established in 1982, with a $3 million dollar grant from the Turkish government.[1] It is a non-profit, private educational foundation based in the United States "dedicated to the support and development of Turkish Studies in American higher education".[2] Heath W. Lowry become the first executive director of the Institute, before becoming the incumbent of the Atatürk Chair of Turkish Studies at Princeton, which was financed by the Turkish government.[3] The Institute is housed at Georgetown University in Washington, DC.
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