Although the initial flickers of liberalism have been subsumed by the Islamist bonfire,
the so-called "Arab Spring" has, paradoxically, made Israel stronger as Israel's enemies
have turned on each other. While Arab capitals burn, Jerusalem has calmly and carefully
steeled itself against the possible immediate deleterious effects, building fences
along its Egyptian and Jordanian borders and accelerating the deployment of its
Iron Dome anti-missile system. Whereas Arab states remain mired in internal political,
economic, and military turmoil, Israel hums along, its economy intact -
tourism is at an all-time high - its military untested, and its government united
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Israel's concerns about a volatile Syria also belie the advantages reaped by a damaged Syria.
Concerned about the potential transfer of Syrian Scuds or chemical weapons to Hezbollah,
Israel is apprehensive of both a last ditch attempt by Assad to embroil it in war or by the possible
ascent of another Islamist regime.However, irrespective of Assad's ability to cling to power,
post-uprising Syria will also be a shell of its former self. Like Egypt, its economy is in tatters,
having been hit hard by Western sanctions on its oil industry, which accounts for
30 percent of its budget. Its' army has suffered large defections and losses at the
hands of the rebels and its' patron, Iran, has invested massively in propping up its
sole regional ally. Even Hezbollah, aware of its current tenuous position in the
Lebanese powder keg, finds itself increasingly isolated, having sided with Assad.
Israel's northern border has never been quieter. |
Even as it rightly plans for the changes wrought by the "Arab Spring,"
Israel should also recognize that as the Middle East convulses, it is more likely to be left alone.
As Alawites battle Arab Sunnis and Kurds in Syria, as Kurds target Turks in Turkey,
as the Imazighen fight Arabs in Libya, as the Army contends with Islamists in Egypt,
and as Sunnis and Christians confront Shiites in Lebanon, people don't have the time,
energy, or resources to fight the Jews in Israel. The more the region tears itself apart,
the more Israel floats to the top, unscathed economically, militarily, or diplomatically
While an Islamist ascent is undesirable, the intervening disorder only makes Israel stronger.
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