Don't Wait for Assad's Fall to Prepare for Transition | Syria News
Bradley Bosserman is a policy analyst at NDN and the New Policy Institute, where he directs the Middle East and North Africa Initiative.
Much of the latest analysis of the ongoing crisis in Syria focuses on securing the Assad regime’s stockpile of chemical weapons. In particular, how to keep them out of the hands of groups like the Nusra Front. While that is critical, the more difficult, and no less important, consideration for policymakers should be preparing a real strategy for a post-Assad transition. It’s in U.S.interest to see the creation of a free and stable Syria that promotes regional security. But the time to put the pieces in place that can enable that is not the day after Assad falls. The time is now.Post-Assad Syria will be messy and awash with weapons. Those involved in the transition should learn the lessons of de-Baathification–the U.S.-led process in Iraq that disassembled all institutions of Saddam Hussein’s regime, creating a destabilizing vacuum. In Syria, maintaining as much continuity of key institutions —especially within the military and security apparatus—will be critical to avoiding a disaster. Meanwhile, the Supreme Military Council, the military wing of the Syrian opposition, will not be equipped to effectively manage reconstruction and the distribution of aid in the immediate aftermath of Assad’s downfall. That is why the new government should invite an international stabilization force into the country with a temporary mandate of peace enforcement.
[ed note:they will not be able to manage reconstruction,by wich he means the lucrative racket called Nation Building:...e.g. when countries destroy a target nation with war,armed insurgencies,then come and pour in after to offer aid to rebuild,like what happened in Afghanistan,and Iraq,where trillions of dollars in aid and reconstruction went missing,only to have billions more handed out only to have the same racket process repeat itself,and almost nothing significant is ever built!!!here is rand corporations(us gov and military tied think tank) advocating such racketts(they years ago said us should start new wars after iraq,afghanistan to boost us economy) Nation-Building | RAND - RAND Corporation [[[[[The United States would be well advised to resume supersizing its nation-building missions and to leave the small-footprint approach to the United Nations.]]]]] [ed note:syria is a goldmine for this line of thinking and western nations destabilizing it now]
Frederic Hof, Special Advisor for Transition in Syria, suggests that such a force would “protect vulnerable populations, expedite the delivery of humanitarian assistance, provide law and order and suppress, with deadly force, extremists and stay-behind regime elements.” It would also be able to minimize the bloodletting of Alawites and regime collaborators. More importantly, it would help maintain stability on the ground, which would allow the Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) to undertake the important work of establishing political and governing institutions and crafting a real time-horizon for the implementation of constitutional and parliamentary processes. However, as Ambassador Hof admits, it is not intuitively clear under which auspices this force would be formed, who would contribute troops, and from where the funding would come.
[ed notes:First,the funding would come from Syrian citizens who would bear the burden of costs ,as would taxpayers from the neocolonial nations pouring in to come rebuild it.I first witnessed this scam when i worked for a permanent mission to U.N. in N.Y. years ago...the scam goes as follows,contributing countries to post conflict resolution regions,wether under demining,peacekeeping,or reconstruction efforts,would collect millions from their own countries,and hand these to a lending institution accreditted at the United Nations(ususally World Bank),in turn that donor country,among others also participating in the endeveour,would get lucrative contracts in the target conflict ,or post conflict nation.This could be in communications,construction,energy,and other sectors(to be privatized,auctioned off most of the time).The biggest crime,outside of this representing outrigth colonialism,is that in the end billions are syphoned off into a black hole,where no real accountability for mismanaged funds takes place,thus only allowing the racket to continue,and the same unwitting citizens,the host nations,and those from donor countries,to keep picking up the tab,over and over..that cycle is basically legal plunder under democractic auspices,and how to stop it,when its been institutionalized on aglobal level thru the UN,remains a mystery to me,short of all out war AND REBELLION BY THE HOST COUNTRIES CITIZENS...THAT SCHEME IS THE REAL ''PROBLEM REACTION SOLUTION AGENDA''
These are conversations that need to occur now. If serious preparations do not begin until Assad falls, it will be impossible to respond quickly enough to achieve the goal of stabilization.The recent experiences in North Africa make clear that political processes and security are not sufficient to ensure a successful transition. Reconstruction, political transition, and humanitarian aid are all crucial, but costly endeavors. Unfortunately, the international community has not yet come to terms with how this work will be funded. Yaser Tabbara, a Syrian-American member of the opposition, explains that the SOC has conducted studies that reveal the “cost of the management of the liberated areas” to be “close to the neighborhood of $500 million a month”. The largest donation thus far has been a commitment from Saudi Arabia of $100 million.
[ed notes;whoever donates,gets a piece of the pie,they will get lucrative contracts to rebuild,and control thru influence,us and europe also seek a big stake(steak)at the table,wich is why they back certain groups while their puppet monarchies back others...
But even Tabbara’s estimates are woefully low. In reality, a successful Syrian transition will cost billions of dollars. If the United States and the international community wish to see the formation of a democratic, stable, and secure country, they need to plan now for funding the transition. Ambassador Hof has called upon Friends of Syria, the group of over 100 countries supporting the opposition, to act immediately to create an interim reconstruction fund. “It could take The World Bank and other international financial institutions months to do needs assessments, organize pledging sessions, and the rest,” he says. The piecemeal and insufficient funding of transitions in Libya,Egypt, and Tunisia are prime examples of the problems presented by financial support policies that are slapped together after the fact.The Deauville Partnership, an international framework to coordinate aid to the transition countries, was created in May 2011 and involves the U.S., the E.U., and key Gulf States. This partnership serves a laudable coordination function and has mobilized billions of dollars worth of support, but simply rolling Syria into that framework at this stage is probably a bad idea. Not only is the Deauville money already spoken for, but bureaucratic constraints have prevented much of it from actually flowing to the intended countries, even long after autocratic governments were toppled. A report by The Atlantic Council concludes that “a clear accounting of exactly what has been transferred to partnership countries is difficult to ascertain, particularly since there is a tendency to double-count funding or re-package initiatives under the Deauville banner that were already in the works.”
[ed notes:these funds thru the deauville partnership were just to destabilize,the real funds for nation building wich i mention above,these will be thru thru the world bank at U.N. level..
While it is impossible to know exactly when or how the Assad regime will collapse, it now appears inevitable that it will. When that occurs, the United States and the international community need to be prepared to answer the call for real assistance. The institutions and tools that everyone knows will be needed must be planned for now. There are fighters outside Aleppo and Damascus giving their lives each day in a grueling battle for a free Syria. Those wishing to support them need to make sure that the tools to build that new country will be ready when those brave revolutionaries call for them.
[ed notes;one group waiting in wings to take over Syrias communications sector,is the Legatum Institute,wich is a ziocon rightwing group wich has been for some time advocating regime change,and democratic transition after fall of Assad...their roster included former finace minsiter for afghanistan reconstruction!!!and many zionists..their goals?take over media and propegate pro israhell ,free market ,pro western indoctrination all day to Syrian(wishful thinking on their part i know,but they have real agendas for just that)
Nov 16, 2012[ed notes:now back to author of this piece brad bosserman... Obama’s Second Term: Time for More Ambitious Foreign Policy The first term was spent playing defense. Now it's time to get on the offensive with an ambitious foreign policy agenda. In order to accomplish this, the administration will need to fully come to terms with the “rise of the rest” and ascension of middle-income countries on the world’s stage. Strong American leadership in this new world will require reimagining the architecture of global governance. Some of this is underway with the increased reliance on the G20 rather than the G8. But more will have to be done to incorporate other nations substantively into the fabric of the IMF, World Bank, and Security Council. Additionally, we will need to craft new institutions that can coordinate collective action and truly make the United States an indispensable super partner in addition to being a super power.
[ed note;one other notable from CSIS is anthony cordesman...hes also advocating regime change in syria,and of course hes tied to NATO as well..see..CSIS,NATO PUPPET CORDESMAN AND SYRIA Older Post - THENAKEDFACTS