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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Brookings continues by describing how Turkey's aligning of vast amounts of weapons and troops along its border in coordination with Israeli efforts in the south of Syria, could help effect violent regime change in Syria: In addition, Israel’s intelligence services have a strong knowledge of Syria, as well as assets within the Syrian regime that could be used to subvert the regime’s power base and press for Asad’s removal. Israel could posture forces on or near the Golan Heights and, in so doing, might divert regime forces from suppressing the opposition. This posture may conjure fears in the Asad regime of a multi-front war, particularly if Turkey is willing to do the same on its border and if the Syrian opposition is being fed a steady diet of arms and training. Such a mobilization could perhaps persuade Syria’s military leadership to oust Asad in order to preserve itself. Advocates argue this additional pressure could tip the balance against Asad inside Syria, if other forces were aligned properly. -page 6, Assessing Options for Regime Change, Brookings Institution. Turkish leaders have clearly spent much time fabricating various excuses to meet Washington's demands in this regard by fabricating or taking advantage of violence Turkey itself is fostering along its own border with Syria.The report would also mention Turkey's role in helping undermine, subvert, and carve out the ancient northern city of Aleppo:Because creating a unified national opposition is a long-term project that will probably never fully succeed, the contact group, while not abandoning this effort, may seek more realistic goals. For example, it might concentrate maximum effort on breaking Asad’s hold on, say, the elite of Aleppo, which is the commercial capital and which is also the city where Turkey has the greatest leverage. If Aleppo were to fall to the opposition, the demoralizing effect on the regime would be considerable.
Should this option fail, the United States can simply accept a bad situation in Syria or escalate to one of the military options below. -page 6, Assessing Options for Regime Change, Brookings Institution.The military options include everything from perpetuating violence to, in Brookings' own words, "bleed
it, keeping a regional adversary weak, while avoiding the costs of direct intervention," to Libyan-style "no-fly zones," to a full military invasion. It is clear, upon reading the Brookings memo, that the conspiracy has indeed begun to unfold since its writing - with various military options being prepared and various co-conspirators positioning themselves to execute them.

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