A Question for Israel: What If Syria Becomes the Next Lebanon? http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/10/the-limits-of-power.html
A high-placed IDF officer described a situation this week [of Sept. 30] in which Syria will, in effect, be partitioned into several zones of control, each of them constituting a regional power base. It is definitely likely that one of them, let’s say in the environs of Damascus and surrounding other cities as well, will be under Bashar al-Assad’s control. But he will not be, and to a great extent is no longer, the “President of Syria” any more than Amine Gemayel was the president of Lebanon after the parliament members of that so-called state (some who came to vote with Israeli backing) elected him to that exalted position.What is significant is the fact that Syria is becoming the most extreme example of the new world surrounding Israel. National states, some of which (Lebanon, for example) were artificial colonial creations while others had a long history, are weakening and some — disintegrating. The danger of “large-scale” war, involving capture of Israeli territory, disappears together with the dismantling of these countries. History teaches us that a failing country invites all the worlds maniacs. That is what happened in Lebanon, and that is what is taking place in Syria, but with one difference: there are vastly greater quantities of weapons of all types in Syria today, than there ever were in Lebanon. Thus the rebels really don’t need assistance in this regard 

New intelligence In the North [of the country], they are talking about preparing for a new world. First of all, physically strengthening the obstacles to protect ourselves from infiltration attempts of people and weapons. The border infrastructure, which has not been dealt with since the disengagement agreement in the mid-1970s, is being re-established. So far, new infrastructure has been completed for a section of around 20 kilometers [12.4 miles].Head of Military Intelligence Directorate Aviv Kochavi and top officials of the directorate recently explored the border. An army spokesman announcement of the tour said that the purpose was to “create [three-way] dialogue between high-level corps officials, the Golan Division Commandant and intelligence officers in the sector — in order to adjust and modify the Intelligence Branch tools and methods of collection and research of the threats in the zone .” In simple words that lead to complicated actions, Kochavi and his people understand that they must seek new intelligence with new definitions, new objectives, and new tools. Systems that were built over scores of years with much money and judiciousness have lost their relevance all at once. In the new world it will be difficult for military intelligence, in charge of providing clear answers (“will there be war?”) to even define the correct questions.

Yair Golan, currently Head of the [Northern] Command, had previously served as Home Front Command. Golan is a veteran infantry man, but it seems that it is his previous role which prepares him to understand the “day of judgment” that is likely to be realized in his zone. Hezbollah also hears Israel’s statements about what the next war will look like. They [Hezbollah operatives] also assume that the next war will not involve an initial foot-dragging period followed by gradual escalation, a two-week period until Israel mobilizes its reserves and almost a month until the first big operation takes place. Thus, we assume, Hezbollah will act accordingly: they will hurl all the firepower they can at us much earlier, much more violently. While the IDF’s mantra has been to keep its wars as short as possible, this goal was not realized in [the Second] Lebanon [War] nor in the Cast Lead operation [2008-9]. Instead, this mantra is liable to be adopted by Hassan Nasrallah in his next war.The true conclusion to be drawn from the new world that is currently being shaped in the pillars of smoke and murder of citizens across the border, is that we must change our conceptions. We must use our power to meet real needs, and not [fulfill outdated] mantras from the past and longing for things that have passed from the world. We must understand the true significance, limitations and benefit to be gained by use of force, if needed. In contrast to the sense that is reflected by the culture of victimization of the government and part of the media, Israel is becoming stronger every day in relation to its adversaries. To the same degree, some of this power loses its importance every day. Instead, it becomes more and more critical to answer the questions about when, and for what, to activate this power.
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